A new AP article about 3D printers has been published via NPR and many other sites this morning, and it has me absolutely frustrated. It mentions a lot of the neat things 3D printers have been used for recently, but also speculates that 3D printing technology will replace entire industries and significantly impact economies worldwide.
Speculation is fine, but ignorant or uninformed speculation is dangerous. Here’s a quote from Dartmouth College business professor Richard D’Aveni:
Imagine a soldier on a firebase in the mountains of Afghanistan. A squad is attacked by insurgents. The ammunition starts to run out. Is it worth waiting hours and risking the lives of helicopter pilots to drop it near you, or is it worth a more expensive system that can manufacture weapons and ammunition on the spot?
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Okay, so in this scenario there’s no ammunition, but the soldiers would have a 3D printer, supporting equipment, a sufficient working and finishing environment, enough power, and ample supply of printing media?
Despite how versatile and important 3D printers are today and will be in the foreseeable future, they aren’t magical, and they have very real limits.
Limits as to what materials they can print with, limits as to how quickly they can print, limits as to how precise they can print, limits as to how little resources they require.
Going back to the battlefield scenario, let’s say the 3D printer needs maintenance. Where does the replacement part come from, another 3D printer? Not going to happen. Take a look inside a commercial-grade 3D printer and you won’t see any 3D-printed parts in there. Even if, or when, a military-grade 3D printer is designed and built, it too will have limits.
3D printers won’t replace current manufacturing technologies, but will complement them.
Every time I hear about 3D printed food I cringe. Yes, some 3D printers produce edible prints, but there’s a world of difference between a delicately detailed chocolate pattern and real food.
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Let’s say a company develops some innovative new organic and edible print material that could create something that resembles real food. It would still be cheaper, easier, and quicker to buy real food.
Don’t get me wrong, there are great things being done with 3D printers, and the innovations and advancements won’t stop coming anytime soon. But there is also a lot of hype that is leading people to form exaggerated expectations and beliefs. Yes, they might appear at battlefield firebases sometime soon, but they won’t be printing ammunition or replacement parts for heavy equipment.
Some people think that there will be a 3D printer in every home, similar to how we all have computers, printers, microwaves, toasters, and other such appliances. My feeling is that while this is a possibility, we’re more likely to see commercial 3D printers at every Staples, FedEx/Kinko’s, and other office supply stores and printing shops, where you upload and pay for your print at home and just pick it up at the local store.
I guess the idea of a 3D printer in every home printing out ammunition, doodads, and cheeseburgers just makes for entertaining news, even if far-fetched and still in the realm of science fiction fantasy.
In a few years there will be far more that 3D printers can do, but there will still be limits dictating what they cannot and should not be used for. The progress will continue to be amazing, but just don’t expect for 3D printing technology to collapse entire mass manufacturing economies.
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Shawn
Thank you. I work with 3D printers at my job and read this article earlier today with similar thoughts. They can do amazing things there is no doubt, but the big limitation in a lot of situations is time. 3D printers are more efficient with materials then other manufacturing techniques, but its far from instant. Right now it takes us hours to print a small plastic part. If you wanted to do a 100% infill on a bullet in plastic it would take about an hour. The other thing with the soldier scenario is gunpowder. The don’t 3D print it. This article just got under my skin with its over promise of a new and still amazing technology despite its limitations.
Maikeru
I’m thinking that these would be a really good addon for shops that do CNC work as a printer could build one-off parts that would likely normally need to be injection moulded (although I think that injection moulding would likely be a lot faster and cheaper for big runs of parts).
Kyle
I second the sentiment Stuart!
What is the vast majority of 3D printing and similar technologies (SLS, SLA etc.) good for? High complexity, small quantity, mostly non-structural prototyping. What is it bad for? Anything made in significant quantities. Anything requiring precision (and even nice finishes required very labor intensive post processing in most cases).
These technologies will inevitably improve and they are already amazing – but focus on how they actually are amazing instead of declaring we are months away from a Star Trekish future where everything will be made magically when and where needed. Ever since the miniaturization of electronics and computers has shifted every paradigm in the world there is no end to declaring that every other field will have similar disruption. I find it vaguely disrespectful to all the craftsmanship, knowledge and hard work that goes into the majority of manufactured things.
For me this also falls under the category of generally very poor science and engineering reporting period. The above pull quote about on-site ammunition manufacturing by 3D printer doesn’t strike me as a piece of Jules Verne-like inspirational futurism, but rather just plain ill-informed, irresponsible speculation.
Martin
Thanks for the sanity about 3D printing. It is a new technology with some pratical uses now and great potential for the future, but not yet to the level of some current news stories.
Walty
So, according to this yahoo that teaches our kids at a college level, 3D printers can make ammunition? Huh, maybe I need to buy a 3D printer and start making my own ammunition since I can’t find it in the stores…
Michael Veach
it is amazing what some people will believe
Galadriel
Ah, someday. “Someday there will be” 3D printers that can make 3D printings of any specified substance out of any old junk you have sitting around. Oh wait, I’m describing a Star Trek replicator. Yeah, I want one of those. No, I don’t think it’ll happen in my lifetime.
Brandon
Funny – a lot of the comments made here were similar to comments I heard when people started buying P.C.s (just go to the library), CAD systems came out (it’s easier to just draw), the internet started (nobody is going to use this), and when Asian cars invaded the U.S (I’m not driving that foreign garbage). I think that the only conclusion that should be drawn from that is to not discount potentially disruptive technology. Additive manufacturing has tremendous potential, I don’t need to elaborate on – just use your imagination. If the printers were faster (they are getting much faster everyday), the plastics were stronger (chemical companies are replacing everything with plastics now), and objects could be printed with multiple mediums (metal and plastic, for example – there is company that can do that btw) I have a hard time not seeing a 3d printer in everyone’s house in the future.
KenZ
Totally agree. Not only do we work with 3D printers, we have two labs in Afghanistan each with a 3D printer, and…. it’s only got limited value. The value is high, in that you can print out something to show soldiers to touch and comment on, check fit and feel. And then.. you either CNC it out of metal, or start the REDESIGN of the part so that it can actually be made by injection molder. Since, you know, printed plastic has crap mechanical strength, poor cyclic fatigue resistance, blah blah blah.
On the plus side, we haven’t had too many problems keeping the printers running in an austere environment, but still… no one is ever going to print a weapon system or reliable component thereof.
Kevin
cargo drones are already being used in Afghanistan, I could see a high speed drone dropping off supplies in the scenario dreamed up by the Professor before a 3D printer.
Kip
If I didn’t know better, I would swear this article was plagiarized from an article written in 1904 about the Wright brothers and the invention of aviation. Perfectly narrow minded view. The precision of your narrow minded view holds tolerances tighter than any 3D printer is capable of today. But you just wait. I design parts for 3D printing at my job. The potential of this technology is staggering. That said, I do agree that the ignorant media has no idea of its true potential. In stead, they make things up and claim it will do stupid things in the future. I know that this technology avails us engineers of a capability to design and make parts that could not be made any other way. That in itself will make this technology soar. My broker and I are keeping a sharp eye for trends in the industry. When the time is right and we have a good idea of where to invest, I will. Which company or sector of the industry will take off is uncertain but I believe it will and fast. This is the kind of technology that will grow in fits as breakthroughs will transform it over night.
Orville Wright got the chance to tour the cockpit of the prototype DC3 before he died. That’s how fast aviation developed and that was before computers. This will/ is developing faster. No, we won’t be manufacturing bullets on the front lines, that’s just stupid.
Stuart
You make a lot of valid points, and there is no arguing that 3D printing technology can be used to make parts that are impossible to craft with any other means.
But that does not change the fact that current 3D printer capabilities – and potential future capabilities – have been blown completely out of proportion and context to fantastical levels.
If realistic expectations make me seem narrow minded, so be it. This post was not intended to suggest 3D printing is a dead-end technology, because it certainly isn’t, but to balance out the oh so many delusional and ignorant predictions about what will emerge from such tech in the near future.
Kip
Stuart,
Totally agree that the potential has been distorted by the ignorant media, hell bent on sensationalizing the story to sell advertising. I got the impression that you swung the pendulum the other way.
I think the most exciting potential of this technology will be in the medical industry. It’s already happening because they can “grow” titanium and surgical steel. Even “scaffolding” for growing your own tissues. The high profitability of the medical industry will fund the development of better tolerances and stronger parts.
Kip
Stuart
The medical applications appear boundless at the moment, and I have seen some very exciting research roadmaps that suggest we’ll continue to see real results in the next few years.
There is at least one specialty printer aimed at dentists (Objet Orthodesk) that changes the game when it comes to mold-making and appliance design.
I have been following the progress of implantable 3D-printed titanium devices, and there is definitely potential there. Right now the biggest obstacle there is in improving the mechanical strength of such devices.