“Start your holiday shopping now!!” I have read the same urgings and alerts several times over the past few weeks on business and mass media channels, and it’s starting to get old.
Many recent news stories have been sharing similar information about the current situation. There are shipping container shortages and other cascading effects that means a lot of products aren’t arriving from their overseas destinations in a timely manner.
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On top of the shipping delays, there are also still shortages of parts, materials, components, and completed products.
News reports have also been discussing how demand is greatly outpacing supply.
If I had to sum up the current situation, it seems that there are fewer products than people want to buy, they’re taking longer to arrive at stores, and they’re costing more than usual.
It seems that manufacturers and retailers are mainly warning about the availability of holiday season resupplies. In other words, shelves will soon be full and towards the start of the holiday season, but they are expecting replenishment shortages as products start to sell out.
How will this affect tools, home improvement retailers, and Holiday 2021 tool deals?
Will this affect Home Depot, Lowe’s, and “other retailers” that include smaller chains and independent tool dealers? Probably, but I don’t think the effect will be as sever as everyone is worried about.
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There are 2 types of tools of concern here.
- Everyday tools
- Special Buys
For lack of a better description, everyday tools include anything that one purchases as the need arises. If you’re starting a big tiling job, maybe you need a new tile saw. A woodworking hobbyist might buy a new sander or other tools regularly as their budget allows for it.
Basically, these are the tools that are regularly purchased year-round. We have already seen shortages on certain everyday tools, although this can happen any year. There are usually substitutes or alternatives available, although that’s not always true. If an everyday tool sells out unexpectedly or due to outside influencers, there’s not much that can be done.
And then you have special buys. These are the tools that are specially built and priced for holiday season promotions. Some of specially configured bundles, others are built and sold in high quantities.
The “special buys” could be impacted by the current situation, but the same was true last year and everything turned out alright.
Last year, in response to the frequent question of “what’s going to happen to holiday tool deals because of COVID?,” Home Depot announced that they would have Black Friday tool deals throughout the holiday season.
In a surprise move, Lowe’s actually extended their holiday season schedule last year. Home Depot advertised season-long deals and seemed to follow their typical schedule, where many of their special buys are displayed starting in November.
Things were also different last year, as the country was slowly opening up after the initial COVID pandemic closures, and the idea was that an extended sales period could help reduce or more evenly spread out the foot traffic.
There were some changes last year, with respect to the types of tool deals we had been seeing, but it was very much as busy a Holiday shopping season as in previous years.
Home Depot and Lowe’s seemed to have average Father’s Day 2021 sales events, although there were some irregularities.
For instance, I noticed higher pricing on a Dewalt Atomic series cordless drill and impact driver combo kit at Home Depot and independent dealers, but perhaps it was a local discrepancy. Perhaps this was a control factor to help reduce demand and ensure a higher number of carryover inventory.
According to Home Depot’s website, my local store has 102 of the Dewalt Atomic series combo kits in stock, and they have 2,681 units available for shipping. Home Depot also has 2,832 of the Dewalt DWS779 miter saw available for shipping. These are both high-volume sellers when discounted for the holidays.
Tool brands aren’t immune to worldwide economic disruptions, but they can minimize the effects with advanced planning.
It is possible that tools will be affected by all of the international production and shipping issues that have consumer brands and retailers in a panic.
But, brands and tool retailers have also weathered this storm before. Also, the current shipping crisis didn’t just happen overnight.
Two months ago, business news reports discussed how Home Depot reserved its own container ship and that they have also transported smaller higher value items (such as power tools) via air freight.
Stanley Black & Decker, Milwaukee Tool, and other brands that typically dominate tool retailers’ Q4 sales, have proven to be incredibly versatile and adaptable. Both companies have the ability to manufacture certain tools at different locations.
With all this in mind, I keep hearing “experts” urging consumers to start their holiday shopping now, and it seems like an immense overreaction to me.
HOWEVER, keep in mind that I mentioned two types of tools – everyday tools and “special buys.”
Let’s say you were planning to buy a new power tool. There have been shortages and delays, and there will be further shortages. Is it usually exempt from holiday season promos? Then maybe don’t hesitate to buy it if or when you can, or be prepared to wait. I ordered a new power tool in April and it finally arrived in August.
Things will definitely be impacted, but tool brands and retailers have done a great job of planning around shortages, delays, and other obstacles. Retailer’s promo sales areas are going to be full of many of the same types of tool deals as in previous years.
But the tool industry is also very different from other consumer industries. If a high-demand promo-priced power tool sells out in November, there will be other options. If a certain Paw Patrol toy sells out, good luck ever finding it again.
Just keep in mind that there are some obstacles, delays, and shortages that brands and retailers can plan and prepare for, and others that they can only respond to.
Not everyone is going to find the tool deals or promos they want, but I expect for the 2021 holiday shopping season to be as big and busy as ever.
Nathan
so grey friday. you know perhaps it would be nice to have a good slow down for christmas.
long as I can get my rib roast and my turkeys.
Stuart
Oh, no – Black Friday is going to be HUGE this year. It seems to me that it’s December that experts are warning about.
OR, they could be anticipating more COVID shutdowns and think this is the way to extend the brick & mortar retail sales period.
fred
I see that Labor Day sales announcements have started.
Max Tool is offering $25 off on $150 (16.66% off) – but you will need to push your purchase to $224 or more to get free shipping (at $199 or more after the $25 off) so that will reduce the discount too 11.1% or less.
https://www.maxtool.com/
fred
ToolUp is having a 20% off on all Milwaukee accessories sale – use coupon code ACC20 – for 48 hours only
https://www.toolup.com/
Joe
I’m sure Lowe’s will have no problem retaining all of their cheap, SB&D Craftsman garbage on the shelves throughout the holiday season.
I’m excited for some Home Depot deals! I hope they continue expanding their Milwaukee and GearWrench selection. I anticipate plenty of good sales on some quality products just like in years past.
Frank D
It might be interesting, but I don’t have much hope. I don’t expect the big box stores to adapt and do a lot for BF or Xmas or anything. The past few years have been very lackluster afaic. We get bombarded with deals 24/7 these days and the past holidays from HD/LWS/WM/… have been nothing more than warmed over “ specials” just like the HF clearance/parking lot/liquidation/manager specials/… adverts.
MFC
Black friday/holiday deals typically have some shining deals in them, but I typically find myself stocking up on replacement tools during the holidays (circular saw/recip blades, spade bits, gloves, etc).
I might expand my search into different avenues like 3D printing or videography equipment this year.
Bob
On one hand the so-called experts always want you to “buy now”. There’s always some reason why you should by now and not later.
However anyone with any sense knows there have been massive disruptions in the supply chain recently. My thought is if you really want something and you see it with a decent price I would buy it now or be prepared to wait a while for it to be back in stock and/or cheaper.
X lu
This is a problem resulting from product proliferation and pack size and complexity. When you AND competition have supply chain problems, you shrink the number of active SKUs asap. Customers will move up or down price points based on what’s available for purchase. In general their are far too many SKUs by product type eg drills with little meaningful differentiation for large swaths of consumers other than price.
Michael
Manufacturing in the USA could help this some. We do have a labor issue here but at least some of the shipping problems as it pertains to time and capacity can be reconciled . It’s a long term solution.
Plain grainy
Maybe the Covid will start sputtering & wilt away.
fred
From your lips to God’s ears!
mattd
Honestly I think it will be the other way around. the shelves for “every day” tools at my local depot have been wavering around 60% full pretty consistently. whereas things like special buys probably had their orders placed 4 months ago and are probably already here.
PW
This is what I noticed. At my local store the hardline mechanics tool area has been around 40% stocked for months.
Meanwhile they had so many “special buys” for Father’s day, two weeks afterwards they moved some of the leftovers to try and fill out shelf gaps in the regular stock area!
Jason. W
I work at a Subaru factory. We simply can’t make the cars fast enough. The cars we will make next week have already been sold.
Jamie
The cost for sending a shipping contain from China have skyrocketed this year. At some point manufactures can only eat so much of the rising shipping costs.
Toolfreak
If the stocks of current Labor Day sale tools are anything to go by, black friday and the holidays should be fine. The cardboard display stuff has been at Lowe’s and HD for awhile, and the initial pricing was around “50% off” or what it would be for a BF doorbuster in an ad. Some of it has even gone down more, apparently once sales slowed down.
Covid is likely to get worse in a lot of places and there’s probably not only going to be less customers but maybe a lot less people generally concerned about tool sales. Online sales will probably still be brisk and of course there will be tons of curbside pick-ups since lots of retailers are now permanently set up for it, but I’d guess if stuff is out of stock people will just be able to get it somewhere else or get something similar. The tool industry has a lot of brands and a lot of manufacturers and there is a lot of stock in a lot of warehouses. I doubt there will be any shortages at all, but even if there are, it will be minor, as in you might see more limited quantities of sales and deals at each store, but hand and power tools aren’t going to be out of stock everywhere and going for scalper prices on ebay.